The price of US shipping rose by 60%

According to data from Norwegian industry analysis firm Xeneta, the average spot freight for 40 foot containers shipped from China to the West Coast increased by 61% to $2075 in the six weeks ended August 15th. The latest Deloitte World Container Freight Index (WCI) shows that the transportation cost per 40 foot container from Shanghai to Los Angeles (West America) has reached $2322!

According to the data released by the Shanghai Shipping Exchange, on July 31st, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) was at 782.81 points, and the SCFI was at 742 US dollars/TEU. As of August 15th, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) European freight index was at 1110.02 points.

According to Hugo Cross border, the reasons for the recent increase in freight rates mainly include the following factors:

Affected by the ongoing severe drought, the Panama Canal has implemented restrictive measures, causing congestion in river sections due to ship queues, thereby disrupting the global supply chain. It is reported that according to the restrictions, the maximum draft of ships passing through the Panama Canal is 44 feet (13.41 meters), and only 14 scheduled ships are allowed to pass through the old locks used by small ships every day, as well as 10 scheduled ships are allowed to pass through the new large locks every day. The number of reserved vessels for passage is only 8. By comparison, the daily number of ships passing through the canal during the same period in previous years was 36. In addition, according to Xinhua News Agency, the Panama Canal Authority announced on the 16th local time that the current implementation of ship restrictions will be extended until September 2nd.

There are reports that ships from the US East may be delayed for 15 to 19 days. However, some freight forwarders have pointed out that the reduction in daily traffic for only about 4 ships has an impact on the actual travel time of many ships, which is about 1 to 4 days. From the near future, the overall impact on the timeliness of goods from the US East is not significant.

Furthermore, European and American consumer festivals are mainly concentrated in the second half of the year, with overseas retailers actively stocking up in the first 1-3 months of the festival, and the volume of goods gradually increasing. Based on this judgment, some shipping giants have proposed price increase measures since July, including increasing the comprehensive rate surcharge (GRI), package rate (FAK), and imposing peak season surcharge (PSS) on some routes. According to relevant announcements issued by Maersk, Daffy, Hebrot, and MSC, the adjustment of the above fees will be implemented from August 15th to September 1st.

However, according to several industry insiders, this round of price increase is more a unilateral price increase by shipping companies, which is a man-made adjustment that leads to market chaos and freight rates in the short term, rather than a market recovery. In terms of the current situation of the global container transportation market, it is still a state of overcapacity, large supply and demand gap, and serious imbalance between supply and demand. The increase in sea freight prices may last for about 2 months, and will continue to decline thereafter.

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02

Exchange rate briefly broke through 7.3

On August 15th, in the foreign exchange market, the spot exchange rate of the offshore RMB against the US dollar hit its lowest point at 7.3204, continuing to reach a new low since November 2022. Compared to its closing price on July 31st, it has depreciated by over 1700 basis points in half a month. Analysis suggests that the pressure of RMB depreciation this time is partly due to the strengthening of the US dollar index, and partly due to the poor performance of domestic economic data.

In May of this year, the exchange rate "broke 7", and the RMB/USD exchange rate showed a continuous downward trend. On June 21, the offshore RMB/USD exchange rate fell below the 7.2 yuan mark during the session. For export enterprises mainly settled in US dollars, the depreciation of the RMB can improve the price competitiveness of export products, increase exchange earnings, and have a certain beneficial impact on their profits. The increasing purchasing power of the same amount of US dollars may stimulate the shopping enthusiasm of overseas consumers.

In addition, every time the Chinese yuan depreciates, cross-border sellers will consider whether to withdraw cash. As early as August 14th, when the exchange rate fluctuated, many sellers discussed the issue of withdrawal in the group.

Will the US dollar exchange rate continue to rise

Quickly withdraw

The exchange rate has also become too fast, I regret not exchanging more

When the exchange rate broke through 7.3, some sellers had already started to exchange to earn the price difference. Senior seller "Amazon Fifth Master" also said, "I am very satisfied with this exchange rate. There is no absolute high point, just put it in the bag first

Aohai Technology stated on the investor interaction platform that the company provides portable energy products to the world. The depreciation of the RMB not only enhances the competitiveness of the company's products abroad, but also facilitates the expansion of sales overseas. On the other hand, the company actively conducts foreign exchange research, predicts the trend of foreign exchange in advance, and makes corresponding decisions. It is reported that currently, Aohai Technology's overseas revenue accounts for 30%, and the rise in foreign currency exchange rates is generally beneficial for Aohai Technology.

Huakai Yibai previously stated that the main settlement currency for the company's cross-border export e-commerce business is foreign currency, and exchange rate fluctuations in payment and receipt currencies will result in exchange gains and losses. The company will also be flexible in converting foreign currencies back into RMB to reduce exchange rate fluctuation risks.

However, exchange rate fluctuations are unstable. According to data released by the China Foreign Exchange Trading Center on August 18th, the central parity rate between the US dollar and the Chinese yuan is 7.2, indicating that sellers' enthusiasm for exchange has greatly diminished.